8 Aug · 06:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇵🇱Adrian Spychala
ELO 1570
FormLLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Spychala
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1525
FormLWWLL
55%
45%
🌟Spychala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (22)
Fair odds · Spychala
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+45
H2H4-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-0)