8 Aug · 06:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1310
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sulkowski
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1322
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H4-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.