8 Aug · 12:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MD
🇵🇱Maciej Domin
ELO 1748
FormLWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kulpa
KK
🇵🇱Konrad Kulpa
ELO 1752
FormWWLLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kulpa🌟Kulpa rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (16)
Fair odds · Kulpa
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.