8 Aug · 11:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Staniszewski
ELO 1383
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sawicki
GS
🇵🇱Grzegorz Sawicki
ELO 1406
FormWLWWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Sawicki
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 39% · 2.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.