8 Aug · 18:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1505
FormLWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Michalik
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1501
FormWWWWL
50%
50%
🌟Mucha stays under total as underdog 63% (51)
Fair odds · Michalik
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.