8 Aug · 15:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RC
🇵🇱Radoslaw Chrzescian
ELO 1558
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Chrzescian
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1525
FormLWWLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Chrzescian
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 70% · 1.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.