8 Aug · 15:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DM
🇵🇱Daniel Morawiec
ELO 1514
FormWWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Morawiec
RW
🇵🇱Rafal Wojcik
ELO 1456
FormWWWLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Morawiec
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~82 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H31-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (31-16)