8 Aug · 14:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TP
🇵🇱Tadeusz Piotrowski
ELO 1418
FormWWWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Piotrowski
AS
🇵🇱Artur Szoltysek
ELO 1360
FormLWLWW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Piotrowski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 57% · 1.74· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H28-25
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-25)