8 Aug · 18:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1343
FormLWWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Sulkowski
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1399
FormWLWWW
44%
56%
🌟Kotwica stays under total as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+56
H2H5-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-4)