8 Aug · 18:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1363
FormWLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Poloszczanski
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1359
FormLWLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Poloszczanski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 39% · 2.57· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H6-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.