8 Aug · 20:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1355
FormLWLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sulkowski
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1399
FormWLWWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+44
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+44)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)