8 Aug · 20:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1605
FormLLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Fomin
AF
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1648
FormWLLWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Fomin
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 44% · 2.28· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+43
H2H9-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-7)