8 Aug · 21:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1404
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Fira
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1410
FormWWWLW
49%
51%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 62% (37)
Fair odds · Fira
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H9-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.