8 Aug · 22:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1326
FormLLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Warpas
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1376
FormWWLWL
44%
56%
🌟Kotwica stays under total as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H4-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-2)