8 Aug · 21:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nosiadek
ELO 1342
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Poloszczanski
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1349
FormLLWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Poloszczanski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.02· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.