8 Aug · 23:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1589
FormLLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Pawlik
AZ
🇵🇱Artur Zmijewski
ELO 1537
FormWWLWW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+52
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)