8 Aug · 23:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1335
FormWLLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Sulkowski
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1417
FormLWWWW
41%
59%
🌟Kotwica stays under total as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 48% · 2.09· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~76 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+82
H2H6-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-4)