9 Aug · 01:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RW
🇵🇱Roman Wiza
ELO 1358
FormLWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Fira
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1418
FormLWWWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Fira
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 43% · 2.30· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H51-47
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (51-47)