9 Aug · 07:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1326
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Golaszewski
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1349
FormWLWWW
47%
53%
🌟Golaszewski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (26)
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H5-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.