9 Aug · 09:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Maciej Sinicki
ELO 1387
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Piotrowski
TP
🇵🇱Tadeusz Piotrowski
ELO 1421
FormWWWLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Piotrowski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H56-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.