9 Aug · 09:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1329
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sulkowski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1300
FormLLWLL
53%
47%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H15-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.