9 Aug · 10:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1332
FormLLWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Piotrowski
TP
🇵🇱Tadeusz Piotrowski
ELO 1411
FormLWWWL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Piotrowski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~80 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+79
H2H4-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-0)