9 Aug · 11:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1315
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sulkowski
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1341
FormLWWLW
47%
53%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.87· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H15-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.