9 Aug · 10:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PP
🇵🇱Pawel Polok
ELO 1606
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Polok
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1585
FormWWWWL
52%
48%
🌟Gumulinski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (17)
Fair odds · Polok
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.