9 Aug · 13:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1300
FormLLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Warpas
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1352
FormLLLWW
44%
56%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+52
H2H24-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-15)