9 Aug · 14:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇵🇱Maciej Sinicki
ELO 1402
FormWWWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Sinicki
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1329
FormWLLLW
58%
42%
Fair odds · Sinicki
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+73
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)