9 Aug · 14:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1330
FormWWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Warpas
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1349
FormLLLLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H22-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.