9 Aug · 16:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1361
FormWWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Warpas
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1341
FormWLLWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.