9 Aug · 18:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1480
FormLLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Baran
MB
🇵🇱Mateusz Baran
ELO 1533
FormLWWLL
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Machelski🌟Machelski covers set handicap as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Baran
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+53
H2H2-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)