9 Aug · 16:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1299
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Golaszewski
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1318
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H16-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.