9 Aug · 18:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1489
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Badura
JB
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Badura
ELO 1520
FormWWWWL
47%
53%
🌟Adamus covers set handicap as underdog 64% (55)
Fair odds · Badura
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H0-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.