9 Aug · 18:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1511
FormWWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Adam Linek
ELO 1445
FormWLWLW
57%
43%
🌟Linek covers set handicap as underdog 84% (19)
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+66
H2H56-37
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (56-37)