9 Aug · 19:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PP
🇵🇱Pawel Polok
ELO 1613
FormLWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Polok
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1571
FormWLWWL
55%
45%
🌟Gumulinski covers set handicap as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Polok
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+42
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+42)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)