9 Aug · 19:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇵🇱Adam Linek
ELO 1450
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Linek
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1423
FormWWWLW
53%
47%
🌟Mugowski covers set handicap as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Linek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H25-33
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.