9 Aug · 20:55 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1500
FormLWLWW
63%Win chancemodel fair 1.59Lilien
BK
🇵🇱Bartosz Kwodawski
ELO 1383
FormWWWLW
63%
37%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 63% · 1.59vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 47%Total ~78 pts
3-1
24%
3-0
23%
3-2
15%
1-3
15%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+117
H2H10-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+117)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-6)