9 Aug · 20:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1508
FormLLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Schaniel
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1468
FormWLWLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Baron
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+40
H2H107-72
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.