9 Aug · 22:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JB
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Badura
ELO 1533
FormLWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Badura
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1486
FormLLLLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Badura
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+47
H2H16-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-10)