9 Aug · 21:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1464
FormLWLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Szostok
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1545
FormWWLLW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+81
H2H25-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-17)