9 Aug · 21:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PS
🇵🇱Pawel Slosarczyk
ELO 1403
FormLLWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Urban
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1473
FormLLWLW
42%
58%
🌟Urban rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (33)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+70
H2H14-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-4)