9 Aug · 21:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1480
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Krupa
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1486
FormLLLLL
49%
51%
🌟Adamus covers set handicap as underdog 64% (55)
Fair odds · Krupa
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.