10 Aug · 00:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1488
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Badura
JB
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Badura
ELO 1529
FormWLLWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Badura
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+41
H2H16-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.