10 Aug · 01:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1520
FormWWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Schaniel
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1462
FormLLWLL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Urban🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H53-40
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (53-40)