10 Aug · 02:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1491
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lilien
KR
🇵🇱Kamil Rudomina
ELO 1479
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H54-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.