10 Aug · 01:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1474
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Baron
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1456
FormLLLWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Urban🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.19· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H50-55
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.