10 Aug · 03:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1471
FormLWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Szostok
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1538
FormLWWWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 68% · 1.48· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+67
H2H26-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (26-17)