10 Aug · 07:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1538
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sobel
DS
🇵🇱Dominik Solilo
ELO 1522
FormWLWLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 43% · 2.30· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H4-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.