10 Aug · 07:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1350
FormWWLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Sulkowski
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1407
FormWWLLL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+57
H2H23-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-18)