10 Aug · 08:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1352
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kotyl
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1366
FormLLWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Kotyl
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H69-58
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.