10 Aug · 08:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1352
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Trela
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1358
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Trela
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H11-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.