10 Aug · 08:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1545
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Brud
SB
🇵🇱Szymon Brud
ELO 1560
FormLWWWL
48%
52%
🌟Brud goes over total as favourite 72% (18)
Fair odds · Brud
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H5-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.